A Machine Learning Model for the prediction of the progression of carotid arterial stenoses.

Atherosclerotic carotid plaque development results in a steady narrowing of the artery lumen, which may eventually trigger catastrophic plaque rupture leading to thromboembolism and stroke. The primary cause of ischemic stroke in the EU is carotid artery disease, which increases the demand for tools for risk stratification and patient management in carotid artery disease. Additionally, advancements in cardiovascular modeling over the past few years have made it possible to build accurate three-dimensional models of patient-specific primary carotid arteries. Computational models then incorporate the aforementioned 3D models to estimate either the development of atherosclerotic plaque or a number of flow-related parameters that are linked to risk assessment. This work presents an attempt to provide a carotid artery stenosis prognostic model, utilizing non-imaging and imaging data, as well as simulated hemodynamic data. The overall methodology was trained and tested on a dataset of 41 cases with 23 carotid arteries with stable stenosis and 18 carotids with increasing stenosis degree. The highest accuracy of 71% was achieved using a neural network classifier. The novel aspect of our work is the definition of the problem that is solved, as well as the amount of simulated data that are used as input for the prognostic model.Clinical Relevance-A prognostic model for the prediction of the trajectory of carotid artery atherosclerosis is proposed, which can support physicians in critical treatment decisions.