The effects of climatic change and inter-annual variability on glacier retreat from ~ 1850s AD moraines in the Kuoqionggangri peak region, southern Tibetan Plateau

Glaciers reflect integrated climate signals from inter-annual to centennial timescales. In using glacier extent as a climate-change detector, the challenge is to distinguish the roles of the inter-annual climate variability and long-term climatic change on the glacier change. Using cosmogenic nuclide Be-10 dating method and glacier dynamical models, this study numerically reconstructed glacier extents at similar to 1850s AD (latest Little Ice Age period) in the Keqiong Qu I, Keqiong Qu II, Taqiong Qu I, and Taqiong Qu II valleys around the Kuoqionggangri peak, southern Tibetan Plateau, and quantified the effects of inter-annual summer temperature variability and long-term summer temperature change on the glacier retreats since then. Without change in mean annual precipitation, the summer temperature decrease of 0.40-0.53 degrees C from present was required to sustain the glacier lengths at their respective similar to 1850s AD moraines in the four valleys. The climate inferences from the glacier-climate modeling were similar to reconstructions at other glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and the changes in long term climate reanalysis (HadCRUT5, BEST and NOAA 20CR v3). Forced by the inter-annual variabilities in summer temperature and annual precipitation, the glaciers had excursions of 150-200 m (5-8% of their lengths) from the similar to 1850s AD moraines. We therefore argued that the climate change was largely responsible for the glacier retreats from the similar to 1850s AD moraine positions in the region.