From HODL to MOON: Understanding Community Evolution, Emotional Dynamics, and Price Interplay in the Cryptocurrency Ecosystem
CoRR(2023)
摘要
This paper presents a large-scale analysis of the cryptocurrency community on
Reddit, shedding light on the intricate relationship between the evolution of
their activity, emotional dynamics, and price movements. We analyze over 130M
posts on 122 cryptocurrency-related subreddits using temporal analysis,
statistical modeling, and emotion detection. While /r/CryptoCurrency and
/r/dogecoin are the most active subreddits, we find an overall surge in
cryptocurrency-related activity in 2021, followed by a sharp decline. We also
uncover a strong relationship in terms of cross-correlation between online
activity and the price of various coins, with the changes in the number of
posts mostly leading the price changes. Backtesting analysis shows that a
straightforward strategy based on the cross-correlation where one buys/sells a
coin if the daily number of posts about it is greater/less than the previous
would have led to a 3x return on investment. Finally, we shed light on the
emotional dynamics of the cryptocurrency communities, finding that joy becomes
a prominent indicator during upward market performance, while a decline in the
market manifests an increase in anger.
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