Prediction Method for Leakage Probability of Typical Fluid Machinery & Pipeline based on Cloud Model

Abstract Many dangerous chemicals are involved in the operation of fluid machinery, and the leakage of hazardous chemicals could trigger serious accidents, so the leakage probability prediction of fluid machinery and the effective maintenance before the equipment breakdowns are the critical factors in preventing accidents. A leakage probability prediction method based on a cloud model is proposed to aim at the standard fluid machinery with a frequent leakage probability in a chemical industry park. Due to the basic leakage probability of fluid machinery at home and abroad, the index system of leakage influencing factors is constructed and its influence degree is analysed. The modified typical fluid machinery leakage probability is then obtained using the cloud model to eliminate the subjectivity of quantitative results. The proposed method is utilized to estimate the leakage probability of Ethylene pipeline leakage of a pump in 1300# cracking gas compression area. The outcome 4.27 × 10 −5 proves that this method can effectively solve the deviation problem in the leakage prediction process of domestic fluid machinery and guide the process of leakage probability prediction or accident prevention.