Distribution and extent of suitable habitat for geladas (Theropithecus gelada) in the Anthropocene

Abstract Background Climate change coupled with other anthropogenic pressures may affect species distributions, often causing extinctions at different scales. This is particularly true for species occupying marginal habitats such as gelada, Theropithecus gelada. Our study aimed to model the impact of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats for geladas and draw conservation implications. Our modelling was based on 285 presence locations of geladas, covering their complete current distribution. We used different techniques to generate pseudoabsence datasets, MaxEnt model complexities, and cut-off thresholds to map the potential distribution of gelada under current and future climates (2050 and 2070). We assembled maps from these techniques to produce a final composite map. We also evaluated the change in the topographic features of gelada over the past 200 years by comparing the topography in current and historical settings. Results All model runs had high performances, AUC = 0.87 – 0.96. Under the current climate, the suitable habitat predicted with high certainty was 90,891 km 2 , but it decreased remarkably under future climates, −36% by 2050 and −52% by 2070. Whereas no remarkable range shift was predicted under future climates, currently geladas are confined to higher altitudes and complex landscapes compared to historical sightings, probably qualifying geladas as refugee species. Conclusions Our findings indicated that climate change most likely results in a loss of suitable habitat for geladas, particularly south of the Rift Valley. The difference in topography between current and historical sightings is potentially associated with anthropogenic pressures that drove niche truncation to higher altitudes, undermining the climatic and topographic niche our models predicted. We recommend protecting the current habitats of geladas even when they are forecasted to become climatically unsuitable in the future, in particular for the population south of the Rift Valley.