A priori prediction of breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy using quantitative ultrasound, texture derivative and molecular subtype

Abstract The purpose of this study was to investigate the performances of the tumor response prediction prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy based on quantitative ultrasound, tumour core-margin, texture derivative analyses, and molecular parameters in a large cohort of patients (n = 208) with locally advanced and earlier-stage breast cancer and combined them to best determine tumour responses with machine learning approach. Two multi-features response prediction algorithms using a k-nearest neighbour and support vector machine were developed with leave-one-out and hold-out cross-validation methods to evaluate the performance of the response prediction models. In a leave-one-out approach, the quantitative ultrasound-texture analysis based model attained good classification performance with 80% of accuracy and AUC of 0.83. Including molecular subtype in the model improved the performance to 83% of accuracy and 0.87 of AUC. Due to limited number of samples in the training process, a model developed with a hold-out approach exhibited a slightly higher bias error in classification performance. The most relevant features selected in predicting the response groups are core-to-margin, texture-derivative, and molecular subtype. These results imply that that baseline tumour-margin, texture derivative analysis methods combined with molecular subtype can potentially be used for the prediction of ultimate treatment response in patients prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy.