Impact of coronary artery calcium score level in prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events

Abstract Background Elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) and total mortality, while the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) significantly increases the sensitivity and specificity of traditional risk factors and risk scores in asymptomatic patients with intermediate risk. Purpose The aim of the study was to determine an association between the CACS and risk of major adverse CV events (MACE), as well as which value of CACS could be added in a prediction model based on traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in patients without established coronary artery disease (CAD) to improve risk stratification. Methods The study was performed as retrospective study, included patients of both sexes, aged over 40 years, with at least one traditional CVRF who underwent MSCT coronarography with follow up of 3 years. All patients were monitored for the presence of CVRFs, use of antihypertensive, statin and antiplatelet therapy, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), 10-Year Coronary Heart Disease Risk with Coronary Artery Calcification (MESA score) and CACS. Results Of the 100 included patients, 61 (61%) were male and the mean age was 57.1±10.7 years. Most of patients (47%) had an intermediate ASCVD risk, average CACS value of 65.0 (0.0 - 383.3), mean value of CACS of 327.8±653.2, mean MESA score of 13.4±10.1 and a total of 29% MACE, with hospitalization as a most common (24%). There was an association between MACE and ASCVD score (p = 0.037), as well as CACS (p = 0.022). Logistic regression showed that the occurrence of MACE is influenced by: glucose level ([OR] (95%CI) 1.330 (1.003-1.762), (p = 0.047)), ASCVD score (([OR] (95%CI) 1.881(1.161- 3.048, (p =0.010)), MESA score (([OR] (95%CI) 1.055(1.004-1.109) (p = 0.033) and CACS (([OR] (95%CI) 1.902(1.170-3.092) (p = 0.010), where an increase in CACS by one increases the risk of MACE by almost 2 times. Conclusions The occurrence of cardiovascular outcomes is influenced by CACS, MESA score, ASCVD score, glucose level and age. Additional research is needed, with larger number of patients, to develop a predictive model based on traditional CVRFs and CACS values, in asymptomatic patients, in order to improve risk stratification.