Contrasting current and future surface melt rates on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica: Lessons from in situ observations and climate models

Surface meltwater production impacts the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in several ways, both directly (e.g., through runoff in Greenland) and indirectly (e.g., through cryo-hydrologic warming and frontal melt of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland and hydrofracturing of ice shelves in Antarctica). Despite its importance, the spatial and temporal patterns in melt rates on both ice sheets are still relatively poorly understood. In this contribution we review and contrast surface melt ‘weather ‘(i.e., short term, intra- and interdiurnal variability) and surface melt ‘climate’ (i.e., longer term, interannual variability and future melt) of both ice sheets. We find that in situ observations using suitably equipped (automatic or staffed) weather stations are invaluable for a complete understanding of the melt process, which represents the complex transport of energy by radiation, turbulence, and molecular conduction between the lower atmosphere, the ice/snow surface, and the subsurface ice/snow layers. We provide example time series of ice sheet melt ‘weather’ for the marginal Greenland ice sheet, where warm and humid air masses tend to increase surface melt rate, and for coastal East Antarctica, where the opposite happens. Apart from process understanding, these in situ observations, which especially in Antarctica are scarce in space and time, are also invaluable to validate, evaluate and calibrate satellite- and model-based estimates of ice sheet surface melt rate. We provide examples of modelled melt maps for both ice sheets, and melt projections for a high-warming, fossil-fuelled development scenario. Although important milestones in melt observations (both in-situ and remotely sensed) and melt models (both global and regional) have recently been reached, we identify multiple outstanding research questions pertaining to current and future ice sheet surface melt rates.