Impact of COVID-19 on DTP3 Vaccination Trends in Africa: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Abstract Background Vaccine-related death is one of the leading causes of death among African children. Vaccine coverage is a very important measure to decrease infant mortality. WHO has set a 90% vaccination coverage target of 3 doses of DTP (DTP3) by 2015. Covid-19 Pandemic has affected the healthcare system and may have disrupted vaccine coverage. Methods DTP3 Vaccine Coverage was extracted from UNICEF databases from 2012 to 2021 (the last available date). Joinpoint regression was performed to detect the point where the trend changed. The annual percentage change (APC) was calculated for Africa and the regions. Countries’ DTP3 vaccination rates in 2019 and 2021 were compared to see if they complied with the WHO target of 90% DTP3 coverage. Results According to the findings, vaccine coverage decreased by an absolute 4% between 2019 and 2021, with a negative annual percentage change (APC) of -2.9% starting in 2019. With a relative fall of -6.25 percent, Eastern and Southern Africa have experienced the largest relative decrease in coverage. A joint point was found in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019, with a downward tendency from 2020 onward. In East and South Africa, the APC turned negative in 2020, with an APC of -3.5 percent. The number of African countries meeting the WHO's 90 percent coverage goal for the third DTP dose fell by 22.7 percent, from 22 in 2019 to 17 in 2021. This decrease suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has harmed DTP vaccination trends in Africa, with half countries reporting a drop in vaccination coverage Key messages • The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted DTP3 vaccination in Africa, causing a 4% absolute decrease in coverage between 2019-2021. • The number of African countries meeting WHO's 90% DTP3 coverage target dropped by 22.7% due to the pandemic impact.