Building a score of climate change mitigation potential in national food-based dietary guidelines

Abstract Background The food sector contributes to a third of global Greenhouse gas emissions. Food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG) are policy tools that provide food advice compatible with health. There is a growing effort to include environmental sustainability in dietary guidelines, but less is known about the extent to which different countries include dietary recommendations with climate change mitigation potential. Methods Based on a systematic review and quantitative content analysis of food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG), a Dietary Climate Mitigation (DCM) score was developed to assess and rank the climate change mitigation potential of dietary guidelines at three levels: food life cycle, dietary patterns, and food groups. To avoid an overestimation of recommendations with relatively lower climate mitigation potential, the overall DMC score assigns higher weights to the dietary patterns and food groups sub-scores, compared to the food life cycle sub-score. Results Of the selected 92 countries, 38 mention environmental sustainability in their dietary guidelines. The Dietary Climate Mitigation (DCM) score ranged 4-84 (median 31.14 IQR 19.71-39.14, score range 0-100). Scores were significantly higher in high-income countries, dietary guidelines published after 2010, and those that explicitly address environmental sustainability. The highest scores are those from Belgium-Flemish, Australia, Zambia, Israel, Spain, Netherlands, Seychelles, Denmark, Sweden, and United Kingdom. Food advice with high climate mitigation potential are less frequent than advice with relatively lower mitigation potential. Conclusions Future dietary guidelines can be more aligned to health and climate goals if they factor in the differential environmental footprints of food choices. Explicit inclusion of environmental considerations in dietary advice has grown, yet most guidelines can still evolve from pro-environmental (intent-based), to environmentally significant (impact-based) food advice. Key messages • While there is a growth in dietary guidelines that mention environmental sustainability, most countries have still a low coverage of food recommendations with high climate mitigation potential. • To be compatible with planetary health, dietary guidelines can benefit from an impact-weighted approach to dietary advice.