Looking island wide to overcome Sri Lankaʼs energy crisis while gaining independence from fossil fuel imports

Imported fuels used up to 50% of Sri Lankaʼs export income and contributed to the recent crippling energy crisis. This study explores the possibility of using the island's indigenous renewable energy resources to secure energy supply for Sri Lankaʼs power, heat, transport and desalination sectors by the year 2050. The costs, CO2 emissions and land use requirements of the energy system transition pathways are examined. An energy system model in technology-rich, hourly and multi-region resolution was applied. In an entirely renewables-based energy system, the cumulative energy system cost by 2050 is estimated to be 206 billion €, while for the scenario with the least growth of renewables and dominated by fossil fuels, the respective cost is 290 billion €. Solar photovoltaics, including prosumer solar photovoltaics, provided up to 84% of the annual primary energy supply of the country by 2050. Battery storage plays a significant role from 2030 onwards while meeting 34% of the final electricity demand in 2050. Results indicate that the increasing total final energy demand of Sri Lanka can be met through renewables-based electricity and a diverse mix of technologies. The future energy system is best characterised by a Power-to-X economy, if not Solar-to-X economy.