Efficacy, safety, and predictive model of Palbociclib in the treatment of HR-positive and HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE:This research designeded to: 1. Analyze the efficacy and safety of Palbociclib treatment in HR-positive and HER2-negative (HR + /HER2-) metastatic breast cancer(MBC) patients. 2. Establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the progression-free survival (PFS) rates of 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months in HR + /HER2- MBC patients after receiving Palbociclib plus endocrine therapy (ET). PATIENTS AND METHODS:1. This research retrospectively analyzed the efficacy and safety of Palbociclib combined with ET in 214 patients with HR + /HER2- MBC. 2. A nomogram was designed and constructed with the retrospective clinical data of 214 patients with HR + /HER2- MBC who received Palbociclib plus ET at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in China from August 2018 to August 2022. Among these patients, 161 were randomly assigned to the training cohort, while 53 to the validation cohort. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was assessed through the analysis the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis(DCA). RESULTS:1. Median PFS was 7.17 months (95% CI: 7.61-10.05 months), with an objective response rate (ORR) of 2.80% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 34.58%. The most prevalent grade 3-4 adverse event was neutropenia (38.79%). 2. Multiple variable analysis of the training set revealed that age < 60 years old, PR < 20%, Ki-67 ≥ 20%, luminal B molecular subtype, primary resistance to ET, receipt of late-stage chemotherapy, and presence of liver metastasis or ≥ 2 visceral metastases were independent prognostic factors associated with poor PFS (P < 0.05). Then, the predictive model underwent development and validation utilizing the aforementioned parameters. On the one hand, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of the training set at 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months were 0.771, 0.783, and 0.790, respectively, indicating a strong predictive ability of the developed model. On the other hand, the AUC of the validation set at 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months were 0.720, 0.766, and 0.754, respectively, suggesting the favorable discriminatory ability of the model. The calibration curves also exhibited a good fit with the ideal curves, and the DCA demonstrated the clinical applicability of the model. The nomogram's different scores could distinguish PFS. CONCLUSION:This retrospective study demonstrates the efficacy of Palbociclib in Chinese breast cancer patients. Moreover, the clinical parameters showed a significant association with the prognosis of HR + /HER2- MBC, and the prognostic models constructed based on these variables also displayed robust predictive power, which could offer more intuitive and convenient references for clinical doctors to formulate follow-up treatment plans.