ARIMA and Predicted Geospatial Distribution of COVID-19 in India

ARIMA model, an interpretable model, is a statistical machine learning approach that has been used for various predictions in India. From the initial stage of COVID-19, various researchers have been trying to predict with various models. ARIMA is found to be a suitable model for this COVID-19 dataset, though, with little data, no good results were obtained, but having 4-month data the results obtained were promising. ARIMA (4,0,2) model is the best fit for India COVID-19 confirm cases; ARIMA (2,0,2) is a better model for India death cases. Further, a study on four states was carried out using ARIMA, and it was found that ARIMA (2,0,4) is best for Andhra Pradesh, ARIMA (3,0,8) for Delhi confirmed cases. Maharashtra state model was ARIMA (2,0,2), and Tamil Nadu had a better fit model with ARIMA (2,0,0). The models were found to be statistically significant. The predicted case of each state is mapped using GIS for the month September 15, October 15, and November 15, 2020.