Changes in fasting blood glucose status and incidence of cardiovascular disease: The China‐PAR project

Abstract Background The effect of long‐standing prediabetes or its transition on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the association of changes in fasting blood glucose (FBG) status with the risk of developing CVD. Methods This research included 12 145 Chinese adults aged 35–74 years and free from diabetes mellitus (DM) at baseline. Study participants were cross‐classified into six categories according to glucose at the first (1998–2001) and the second visit after 8 years: normal fasting glucose (NFG; 50–99 mg/dl), impaired FBG (IFG; 100–125 mg/dl), and DM. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for CVD associated with transition of glucose status. Results During a median follow‐up of 5.5 years, 373 incident CVD cases occurred. Compared with participants remaining persistent NFG, a higher risk of developing CVD was identified among those remaining persistent IFG, progressing to DM from NFG or from IFG, with the multivariate‐adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.792 (1.141, 2.816), 1.723 (1.122, 2.645) and 1.946 (1.120, 3.381), respectively. Furthermore, when stratified by glucose status at baseline, persistent IFG and progression from IFG to DM still increased CVD risk in comparison with reversion from IFG to NFG, with the multivariate‐adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.594 (1.003, 2.532) and 1.913 (1.080, 3.389). Conclusions Participants with long‐standing IFG and progressing to DM had a higher risk of developing CVD. Further well‐designed studies are warranted to assess the association of other phenotypes or prediabetes duration with CVD.