Early behavior of Madrid Covid-19 disease outbreak: A mathematical model

Abstract Introduction Madrid Covid-19 disease outbreak started on 28 February 2020 and since then it became the main Covid-19 disease cluster in Spain. On 26 March 2020, a total of 17166 cases were already reported, with 2090 deaths. Globally a R 0 index of 2-3 has been reported. We aimed to build an experimental mathematical model that help to analyze the early characteristics of Madrid Covid-19 disese outbreak and to explore the actual R0 index on Madrid Covid-19 outbreak. Material and Methods A simulated mathematical model was built, based on a SIR epidemiological model and the reported characteristics of Wuhan Covid-19 disease outbreak. Monte Carlo simulations were further done to estimate the R 0 value over time in the Madrid Covid-19 disease outbreak. Results Mean estimated R0 value along the early period is of 2.22 (+/-1.21 SD). A significant increase of 0.093 (+/-0.037, p=0.025) in R0 value each day of outbreak is found. Conclussions Our proposed Mathematical Simulation model may be useful to evaluate early characteristics of this outbreak. The present work is the first reported estimation of R0 value in the Spanish Madrid Covid-19 outbreak, with similar results to the previous reported in the Wuhan outbreak, although it may suggest a slightly increase on R0 along time.