Causal Analysis of Tactics in Soccer: The Case of Throw-ins

Accepted by: Phil ScarfThis paper investigates optimal target locations for throw-ins in soccer. The investigation is facilitated by the use of tracking data which provide the positioning of players measured at frequent intervals (i.e. 10 times per second). The methods for the investigation are necessarily causal since there are confounding variables that impact both the throw-in location and the result of the throw-in. A simple causal analysis indicates that on average, backwards throw-ins are beneficial and lead to an extra two shots per 100 throw-ins. We also observe that there is a benefit to long throw-ins where on average, they result in roughly four more shots per 100 throw-ins. These results are corroborated by a more complex causal analysis that relies on the spatial structure of throw-ins.