Analyzing the Differences in the Quantitative and Spatial Characteristics of Inter-Provincial Embodied Carbon Transfers in China Induced via Various Demand Factors

The development of human society has led to the growing consumption of industrial products, which generates significant amounts of carbon emissions. However, relatively few in-depth studies have been conducted on the influence of different demand factors (e.g., household consumption, government consumption, export, and capital formation) on carbon emissions, which hinders the development of targeted industrial policies. To address this issue, an analytical framework based on input-output theory, the hypothesis extraction method, and complex network analysis was established to estimate the intrinsic influence of different demand factors on the embodied carbon transfer between provinces in China. The key findings can be summed up as follows: (1) The macro direction of China's embodied carbon transfer runs from resource-rich northern provinces to industrially developed southern provinces. (2) From the perspective of different demand factors, capital formation is the most significant contributor to China's embodied carbon transfer, with the construction industry being the most important driver. In contrast, government consumption causes the least embodied carbon transfer, but it has the highest average carbon emission intensity. (3) According to complex network theory, the carbon transfer networks via provinces and industries caused by exports are the most concentrated, with the manufacture of electrical machinery and electronic equipment serving as the main source of demand. In contrast, the carbon transfer network resulting from household consumption exhibits a high level of decentralization, with dominant sectors including electric power, gas and water production, and supply and other services. Based on these findings, this study is expected to contribute targeted suggestions with which provinces and industries can formulate demand-side carbon reduction policies for different demand factors, which will contribute to the achievement of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".