The Impact of Supportive Housing Policy Scenarios on Marriage and Fertility Intentions: A Vignette Survey Experimental Study in Shanghai, China

It has been extensively discussed that negative marriage/fertility intentions in developed societies are caused by structural constraints especially soaring housing price. However, as marriage/fertility intentions reflect the joint effects of family formation desires and structural constraints, previous research using observational data has been limited in its ability to disentangle the structural effects of high housing price. The study aims to investigate to what extent high housing price is a structural constraint of marriage/fertility and how manipulating the degree of structural constraint via government housing policies can shape marriage and fertility intentions of young unmarried people. A population-based vignette survey experiment ( N = 727) was conducted in Shanghai, China, where high housing price and low marriage/fertility rates coexist. The data were analyzed by weighted ordered logistic regression and bootstrapping mediation models. The results show that the exposure to both demand- and supply-side housing policy information could significantly facilitate positive marriage and fertility intentions of young unmarried people in Shanghai, and the effects are comparable across socio-demographic groups. The positive effects of housing policies could be largely mediated by respondents’ more positive attitudes toward marriage, higher perceived housing affordability, and stronger perceived social norms supporting family formation. Overall, this study facilitates a deeper understanding of the role of supportive government housing policies in shaping marriage and fertility intentions and its underlying socio-psychological mechanisms.