Association ofTG/HDLCratio trajectory and risk of type 2 diabetes: A retrospective cohort study inChina

Background The association of ratio of triglycerides to high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL‐C ratio) change trajectory with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between risk of T2DM and TG/HDL‐C ratio change trajectory. Methods A total of 18 444 participants aged 18‐80 years old were included in this cohort study. Linear regression and quadratic regression models were used to determine the TG/HDL‐C ratio change trajectory. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between TG/HDL‐C ratio change trajectory and probability of T2DM. Results T2DM developed in 714 participants during a median follow‐up of 5.74 years (92 076.23 person‐years of follow‐up). After adjusting for baseline potential confounders, odds of T2DM were greater for participants with the increasing, U‐shape, bell‐shape, and other shape change vs decreasing change (adjusted OR [aOR] 2.01, 95% CI 1.42‐2.81; 1.56, 1.15‐2.13; 1.60, 1.17‐2.20; and 1.49, 1.13‐2.00, respectively). The results were robust in the sensitivity analyses on excluding baseline participants with T2DM. Moreover, the associations remained significant with male sex, age <60 years and body mass index <24 kg/m 2 . Conclusions This retrospective study revealed increased probability of T2DM with increasing, U‐shape, bell‐shape, and other‐shape TG/HDL‐C ratio change trajectories, especially with male sex, age <60 years and body mass index <24 kg/m 2 .