Model Development of the Phenological Cycle from Flower to Fruit of Strawberries (Fragaria × ananassa)

Strawberries are a very important economic crop; thus, a lot of research has been conducted on several production areas. However, phenological performance is still lacking information, especially when it comes to modeling. Therefore, this study aims to develop a phenological model for flower–fruit development under hydroponic conditions to support growers’ decision-making. Two day-neutral cultivars, ‘Albion’ and ‘San Andreas’, were established in a drip hydroponic system in Auburn, Alabama for the 2022–2023 production season. Phenological data were collected daily on 30 flowers per cultivar for three periods (Oct 25–Dec 16, Dec 27–Feb 21, and Feb 28–Apr 16). Weather data were obtained from a weather station placed in the greenhouse. Growing degree days (GDD) accumulation was calculated for each stage and cycle using a base temperature (Tb) of 3 °C. The Gaussian model was adjusted for each stage and cycle using a non-linear procedure to obtain Gaussian curves. Simulations were made for the model assuming temperature would increase or decrease by 1 °C. Six stages were identified, and their cycle ranged from 43–56 days to be accomplished. ‘Albion’ needed more days to reach maturity, with 51, 56, and 47 days, and ‘San Andreas’ took 43, 54, and 46 days for cycles 1, 2, and 3 respectively. In addition, for cycles 1 and 2, not all the buds reached maturity, as expected. Stage 5 (fruit formation) needed more days than the rest of the stages to be completed. Because of the different starting dates for each cycle, the starting GDD was different as well. A sensitivity analysis simulation of the model showed that if temperature decreases by 1 °C, the GDD accumulated to complete the stages would be less (same dates), and it would be more if the temperature increased by 1 °C. The opposite happened with the days, if the temperature increased by 1 °C, the duration of the stage decreased, and it would increase if the temperature decreased by 1 °C, affecting stages 4, 5, and 6. Overall, ‘San Andreas’ performed better than ‘Albion’ under hydroponic conditions during three productive cycles.