Mechanistic understanding of the summer precipitation and recent wetting trend over Northwest China and Mongolia

The arid region of Northwest China and Mongolia (NCM) receives most of the precipitation in the summer. The need for a better understanding of the synoptic-scale mechanism responsible for precipitation formation is accentuated by the recent wetting trend and its implications for future hydroclimate change. By conducting a hierarchical clustering analysis on an observationally-based daily precipitation dataset, we show that there are three distinct precipitation patterns over NCM, one of which is associated with strong precipitation over the western part of the region and another over the eastern part. The corresponding large-scale circulation anomalies indicate that these strong precipitation events are triggered by the upper-tropospheric disturbances in the form of transient Rossby wave packets. Furthermore, the wetting trend is linked to more frequent strong precipitation events over the eastern NCM, suggesting that it may have been induced remotely by atmospheric circulation perturbations.