Spatiotemporal Estimation of COVID-19 Outbreak Using Infection Data of Healthcare Workers

The estimation of the spatiotemporal characteristics of COVID-19, such as the infection peak and infection duration, is of great significance for the accurate prevention and control of the pandemic. However, under-reporting of cases is very common in fields associated with public health. It is also possible to draw biased inferences if the phenomenon of under-reporting is not taken into account. Therefore, in this paper, infection data of healthcare workers in Wuhan and Hubei (excluding Wuhan) were considered as a small sample, and a novel framework was proposed to explore the impact of under-reporting on COVID-19 infection peak and duration estimation in Wuhan and Hubei (excluding Wuhan). The results show that the infection peak estimated by the reported cases in Wuhan may lag the actual infection peak by 9~10 days, and the infection duration estimated by the reported cases in Wuhan may be 16 days shorter than the actual infection duration. The infection peak estimated by the reported cases in Hubei (excluding Wuhan) may lag the actual infection peak by 1~2 days, and the infection duration estimated by the reported cases in Hubei (excluding Wuhan) may be 12.1 days shorter than the actual infection duration. Additionally, we confirmed differences in the spatial distribution of COVID-19 statistical characteristics.