An econometric analysis of the sawmill by-product market to explore bioeconomy options in Austria

Bioeconomy strategies promote higher shares of biomass products in material and energy sectors. Deploying byproducts from sawmills is therefore of major interest. This study aims at analyzing market characteristics and implications of bioeconomy strategies by combining three methods: First, an econometric supply and demand model for sawmill by-products (SBP) was estimated based on data from 2001 to 2020. Second, the model was used to analyze a reference and a bioeconomy scenario. Third, a use case was analyzed dealing with the integration of wood gasification and BioSNG (Synthetic Natural Gas) production into Austrian flows of SBP. The results indicate that SBP supply reacts unit-elastic to sawnwood exports, while both supply and demand respond inelastic to SBP prices. Demand is positively inelastic related to SBP as input in panel and pellet production. In a bioeconomy scenario, long-term supply would exceed demand, resulting in additional SBP to be used for gasification. A 100 MW BioSNG plant converting these SBP could provide 528 MWh BioSNG per year. This is a 11 % share of the Austrian target value of 5 TWh green gas.