Alarming a tailings dam failure with a joint analysis of InSAR-derived surface deformation and SAR-derived moisture content

A tailings dam failure can be catastrophic. One constantly dumps or removes ore-related materials behind or within a dam before its closure, creating substantial surface change or deformation. The deformation can be assessed with multiple temporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations and interferometric SAR (InSAR) techniques. The surface deformation is one prerequisite causing the failure. The water content increase is another primary factor that can reduce the surface friction among piled materials and induce further surface deformation. Intuitively, large deformation and high water content behind the tailings dam are concerns of a possible dam failure. Thus, we propose a new joint analysis of the InSAR-derived surface deformation and SAR-derived moisture content to achieve the objectives, delineating the stable/unstable status of a tailings dam and capturing a possible pre-failure signal of the dam. We study three types of tailing dams to verify the proposed analysis. The first is the Majiatian tailings dam in China, closed safely at the end of 2020. Our analysis determines that the dam status is stable. The second is the collapsed C ' orrego de Feija similar to o Tailings Dam I in Brazil. The analysis identified a turning point from stable to unstable near December 2018, and the dam failure occurred in January 2019. In case three, an unstable status first at the Maanshan tailings dam was delineated. The findings were conveyed to parties interested in dam safety, and they carried out mitigation activities afterward. The analysis continued until February 2023, indicating a stable status of the tailings dam. The analysis is also robust to slight variations of moving window size around the proposed value. Thus, a valid joint analysis has been studied and is transferable to locations since the analysis and multitemporal SAR observations are available.