Spatial heterogeneity in water quality across the northern nearshore regions of the Laurentian Great Lakes

We provide the first comprehensive analysis of spatial heterogeneity in water quality across the Canadian nearshore regions of the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL) with periodic sampling in the ice-free seasons from 2000 to 2019 for 24 water quality variables from 52 nearshore sites. We asked: (1) What is the extent, range, and magnitude of spatial heterogeneity in water quality conditions across the nearshore of the Canadian Great Lakes? and (2) How do features of anthropogenic development, sub-basin characteristics, anticipated coastal circulation, and weather influence water quality conditions in the nearshore of the Canadian Great Lakes? Principal Components Analysis explained 42% of the variation in water quality across the Canadian Great Lakes, with high spatial heterogeneity both within and among lakes, ranging from oligotrophic conditions in Lake Superior to eutrophic conditions in Lake Erie. Lakes Erie and Ontario generally had higher concentrations of chloride, chlorophyll a, and nutrients while higher silicate concentrations were observed in Lake Superior. Consistent patterns of degraded water quality were observed in Areas of Concern, such as Hamilton Harbour, Bay of Quinte, Nipigon Bay, and near Thunder Bay. Across the nearshore of the Canadian Great Lakes, regions with warmer air temperatures, in addition to urbanized and agricultural landscapes, were associated with deteriorated water quality. Our study highlights the importance of improving management practices across urban and agricultural landscapes, particularly in consideration of climatic change cumulatively degrading water quality conditions in the highly biologically, culturally, and socioeconomically important nearshore regions of the LGL.