Impairment of delayed recall as a predictor of amnestic mild cognitive impairment development in normal older adults: a 7-year of longitudinal cohort study in Shanghai

Background Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is considered a prodromal phase of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). However, little is known about the neuropsychological characteristic at pre-MCI stage. This study aimed to investigate which neuropsychological tests could significantly predict aMCI from a seven-year longitudinal cohort study. Methods The present study included 123 individuals with baseline cognitive normal (NC) diagnosis and a 7-year follow-up visit. All the subjects were from the China Longitudinal Aging Study (CLAS) study. Participants were divided into two groups, non-converter and converter based on whether progression to aMCI at follow-up. All participants underwent standardized comprehensive neuropsychological tests, including the mini-mental state examination (MMSE), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), auditory verbal learning test (AVLT), the digital span test, the verbal fluency test, the visual recognition test, the WAIS picture completion task, and WAIS block design. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive power of baseline cognitive performance for the transformation of amnestic mild cognitive impairment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to test the most sensitive test for distinguishing different groups. Results Between the non-converter group and converter group, there were significant differences in the baseline scores of AVLT-delayed recall (AVLT-DR) (8.70 ± 3.61 vs. 6.81 ± 2.96, p = 0.001) and WAIS block design (29.86 ± 7.07 vs. 26.53 ± 8.29, p = 0.041). After controlling for gender, age, and education level, converter group showed lower baseline AVLT-DR than non-converter group, while no significant difference was found in WAIS block design. Furthermore, converter group had lower AVLT-DR score after controlling for somatic disease. The area under the curve of regression equation model was 0.738 (95%CI:0.635–0.840), with a sensitivity 83.9%, specificity of 63.6%. Conclusions Our results proved the value of delayed recall of AVLT in predicting conversion to aMCI. Early and careful checking of the cognitive function among older people should be emphasized.