Predicting Listeria monocytogenes virulence potential using whole genome sequencing and machine learning

Contamination with food-borne pathogens, such as Listeria monocytogenes, remains a big concern for food safety. Hence, rigorous and continuous microbial surveillance is a standard procedure. At this point, however, the food industry and authorities only focus on detection of Listeria monocytogenes without characterization of individual strains into groups of more or less concern. As whole genome sequencing (WGS) gains increasing interest in the industry, this methodology presents an opportunity to obtain finer resolution of microbial traits such as virulence. Within this study, we therefore aimed to explore the use of WGS in combination with Machine Learning (ML) to predict L. monocytogenes virulence potential on a sub-species level. The WGS datasets used in this study for ML model training consisted of i) national surveillance isolates (n = 169, covering 38 MLST types) and ii) publicly available isolates acquired through the GenomeTrakr network (n = 2880, spanning 80 MLST types). We used the clinical frequency, i.e., ratio of the number of clinical isolates to total amount of isolates, as estimate for virulence potential. The predictive performance of input features from three different genomic levels (i.e., virulence genes, pan-genome genes, and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)) and six machine learning algorithms (i.e., Support Vector Machine with a linear kernel, Support Vector Machine with a radial kernel, Random Forrest, Neural Networks, LogitBoost, and Majority Voting) were compared.Our machine learning models predicted sub-species virulence potential with nested cross-validation F1-scores up to 0.88 for the majority voting classifier trained on national surveillance data and using pan-genome genes as input features. The validation of the pre-trained ML models based on 101 previously in vivo studied isolates resulted in F1-scores up to 0.76. Furthermore, we found that the more rapid and less computationally intensive raw read alignment yields comparably accurate models as de novo assembly.The results of our study suggest that a majority voting classifier trained on pan-genome genes is the best and most robust choice for the prediction of clinical frequency. Our study contributes to more rapid and precise characterization of L. monocytogenes virulence and its variation on a sub-species level. We further demonstrated a possible application of WGS data in the context of microbial hazard characterization for food safety. In the future, predictive models may assist case-specific microbial risk management in the food industry. The python code, pre-trained models, and prediction pipeline are deposited at (https://github.com/agmei/LmonoVirulenceML).