NTCP modelling of xerostomia after radiotherapy for oropharyngeal cancer using the PRO-CTCAE and CTCAE scoring systems at different time-points post-RT

Purpose: This study aims at determining the parameter values of three normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for the contralateral parotid gland, contralateral submandibular gland (SMG) and contralateral salivary glands regarding the endpoint of xerostomia 6-24 months after radiotherapy for oropharynx cancer.Methods: The treatment and outcome data of 231 patients with favorable risk, HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma are analyzed. 60 Gy intensity modulated radiotherapy was delivered to all the patients. The presence and severity of xerostomia was recorded (pre- and post- radiotherapy) by the PRO-CTCAE and the CTCAE scoring systems. In both scoring systems, patients with a change in symptom severity (from baseline) of >= 2 were considered responders.Results: Xerostomia was observed in 61.3 %, 39.2 %, 28.6 % and 27.0 % of the patients based on the PRO-CTCAE scoring system at 6-, 12-, 18- and 24-months post-RT, respectively. The AUCs of the contralateral salivary glands ranged between 0.58-0.64 in the LKB model with the gEUD ranging between 20.3 Gy and 24.7 Gy.Conclusions: Based on the PRO-CTCAE scores, mean dose < 22 Gy, V50 < 10 % for the contralateral salivary glands and mean dose < 18 Gy, V45 < 10 % for the contralateral parotid were found to significantly reduce by a factor of 2-3 the risk for radiation induced xerostomia that is observed at 6-24 months post-RT, respectively. Also, gEUD < 22 Gy to the contralateral salivary glands and < 18 Gy to the contralateral parotid was found to significantly reduce the risk for radiation induced xerostomia that is observed at 6-24 months post-RT by 2.0-2.3 times.