Assessment HOMA as a predictor for new onset diabetes mellitus and diabetic complications in non-diabetic adults: a KoGES prospective cohort study

Background Homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) is a biomarker for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the role of HOMA-IR in the non-diabetic is unclear. This study aimed to determine whether IR measured HOMA-IR value is associated with new onset diabetes as well as vascular disease and can be used as an early predictor for diabetes and vascular diseases in non-diabetic participants. Methods From a prospective community-based cohort of 10,030 individuals, 4314 individuals younger than 65 years and without diabetes were enrolled and divided into three groups by baseline HOMA-IR tertiles: low ( n = 1454), moderate ( n = 1414), and high ( n = 1446). The primary outcome was new onset T2DM. Secondary outcomes were chronic kidney disease (CKD) and a composite of coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke as macrovascular events. Results The mean age was 51 years. The prevalence of hypertension and cholesterol and HbA1c were higher in the high HOMA-IR group. New onset T2DM (5.8%) and CKD (12.2%) incidence in the high HOMA-IR group was higher than that in the others. The prevalence of macrovascular events did not differ among groups. High-HOMA-IR was an independent risk factor for new onset T2DM (odds ratio 1.86 [1.17–2.96]; p = 0.01) and CKD (1.49 [1.12–1.98]; p = 0.01). Conclusions High HOMA-IR was an early predictor of new onset T2DM and CKD, regardless of HbA1c in non-diabetic individuals. Further research on the specific cut off value will be needed.