Left Ventricular End-Systolic Diameter May Predict Persistent Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction

Patients with persistent heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) have a poorer prognosis than those with HF with improved ejection fraction (HFimpEF). However, data on the predictive value of echocardiographic parameters for persistent HFrEF are lacking. We retrospectively studied 443 patients who were diagnosed with HFrEF (EF <= 40%) during hospitalization and underwent echocardiography at the 1-year follow-up. We divided them into the 2 groups: HFimpEF (EF > 40%) and persistent HFrEF group at 1-year follow-up, and assessed the predictive value of echocardiographic parameters at discharge for persistent HFrEF. In total, 301/443 patients (68%) were diagnosed with persistent HFrEF and 142/443 (32%) with HFimpEF at the 1-year follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the persistent HFrEF group had a poorer prognosis than the HFimpEF group (log-rank, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD) had the highest area under the curve (AUC) (0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-0.75; cutoff value: 55 mm) among various echocardiographic parameters. LVESD was an independent predictor of persistent HFrEF at the 1-year follow-up (odds ratio: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.02-1.12) upon multivariable logistic regression analysis. The incidence of persistent HFrEF was higher in patients with an LVESD >= 55 mm than in those with an LVESD < 55 mm (81% versus 55%, Fisher's exact test, P < 0.001). In conclusion, an LVESD (>= 55 mm) was associated with persistent HFrEF. Focusing on LVESD in daily practice may help clinicians with risk stratification for decision-making regarding management in patients with advanced HF refractory to guideline-directed medical therapy.