The predictive significance of lipid accumulation products for future diabetes in a non-diabetic population from a gender perspective: an analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics

Objective: The increasing prevalence of diabetes is strongly associated with visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and gender differences in VAT remarkably affect the risk of developing diabetes. This study aimed to assess the predictive significance of lipid accumulation products (LAP) for the future onset of diabetes from a gender perspective.Methods: A total of 8,430 male and 7,034 female non-diabetic participants in the NAGALA (NAfld in the Gifu Area, Longitudinal Analysis) program were included. The ability of LAP to assess the risk of future new-onset diabetes in both genders was analyzed using multivariate Cox regression. Subgroup analysis was conducted to explore the impact of potential modifiers on the association between LAP and diabetes. Additionally, time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive power of LAP in both genders for new-onset diabetes over the next 2-12 years.Results: Over an average follow-up of 6.13 years (maximum 13.14 years), 373 participants developed diabetes. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed a significant gender difference in the association between LAP and future diabetes risk (P-interaction<0.05): the risk of diabetes associated with LAP was greater in females than males [hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation (SD) increase: male 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) vs female 1.35 (1.11, 1.64)]. Subgroup analysis revealed no significant modifying effect of factors such as age, body mass index (BMI), smoking history, drinking history, exercise habits, and fatty liver on the risk of diabetes associated with LAP (All P-interaction <0.05). Time-dependent ROC analysis showed that LAP had greater accuracy in predicting diabetes events occurring within the next 2-12 years in females than males with more consistent predictive thresholds in females.Conclusions: This study highlighted a significant gender difference in the association between LAP and future diabetes risk. The risk of diabetes associated with LAP was greater in females than in males. Furthermore, LAP showed superior predictive ability for diabetes at different time points in the future in females and had more consistent and stable predictive thresholds in females, particularly in the medium and long term.