Assessing climatic and spatial variables influencing zooplankton richness for space-for-time predictions

The macroecological drivers of freshwater diversity are accredited geographical, spatial and climatic variables, but also to productivity, ecosystem age and landscape history. Locally diversity is also influenced by the dispersal ability of species. Here we evaluated how spatial and climatic variables influence species richness and macroecological patterns in Cladocera and Copepoda. We also discuss whether a space-for-time approach is suitable to predict the community's response to the current rapid warming of lakes.We use the presence-absence of pelagic and littoral microcrustaceans in 1465 Norwegian lakes with a wide range of latitudinal, longitudinal, and altitudinal gradients, as well as a wide span in lake areas, to evaluate how spatial and climatic factors influence zooplankton diversity in two major groups: Cladocera and Copepoda.Longitude and latitude per se were poor predictors of zooplankton richness, but a combination of spatial and ecological predictors gave a good spatial prediction of cladoceran and copepod richness. These two groups did, however, not differ in their spatial distribution, with a strikingly fixed proportion of copepods close to 0.3, suggesting no obvious Allee- effects regarding the mode of reproduction (asexual vs sexual).Since temperature alone was a poor predictor of species richness for both groups and dispersal constraints can make it very difficult to estimate a new richness equilibrium under a future climate, space-for-time predictions may have limited value for assessing future patterns of microcrustacean diversity.Based on a quite unique dataset in terms of the sheer number of sites, spatial gradients, and inclusion of littoral species, our study demonstrates that assessments on how changing climate will shape and modulate zooplankton communities in the future are problematic.