Survival After Diagnosis of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Malawi

PURPOSE Esophageal cancer (EC) is the second most common cancer in Malawi, with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) representing >90% of all ECs. Despite significant morbidity and mortality, little is known about disease outcomes. In this study, we assess survival after ESCC diagnosis in Malawi. METHODS We report on ESCC cases enrolled in a case-control study at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe from August 2017 to April 2020. Suspected cases completed a questionnaire interview; provided blood, urine, and saliva specimens; and underwent a tumor biopsy for histologic confirmation. Cases were followed up by phone biweekly from enrollment to the study end date (December 31, 2020), date of death, or loss to follow-up. Survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test. We also examined associations between treatment and ESCC mortality using Cox regression models. RESULTS There were 300 patients with ESCC enrolled in this study, of whom 290 (97%) had known vital status at the end of follow-up and 10 (3%) were lost to follow-up. Among the 290 patients, 282 (97%) died during follow-up. The median age at enrollment was 55 years (IQR, 48-66), and the median time to death was 106 days (95% CI, 92 to 127). The 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 11% (95% CI, 8 to 15), 3% (95% CI, 1 to 6), and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.8 to 4), respectively. Palliative chemotherapy significantly improved the overall survival of patients with ESCC (Plog-rank = .038) and was significantly associated with reduced mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.51 to 0.99]). No significant association was observed between tobacco use, alcohol consumption, or HIV status and mortality. CONCLUSION Survival after diagnosis of ESCC was poor in Malawi. Although palliative chemotherapy was associated with improved survival, prevention and earlier detection remain key priorities to improve ESCC mortality at a population level.