Modeling the effect of vaccination in fractional-order epidemic model for infectious disease

International Journal of Dynamics and Control(2024)

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摘要
This paper investigates the role of booster vaccination and awareness in a fractional-order epidemic model (FOEM) for highly infectious diseases. The stability analysis is carried out based on the basic reproduction number ℛ_0 playing a central role in determining disease extinction or being endemic. The conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation (HB) are discussed in both sense integer and fractional order of the model. We have shown the effect of fractional-order (FO) α on the stability of equilibrium points (EPs) and in predicting disease dynamics. Further, the model is validated from real data of COVID-19 patients in Canada and Norway. From the estimated parameters, the study reveals that the disease would remain endemic in both countries, and the awareness strategy is better than the booster shot strategy to control the disease outbreak rapidly.
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关键词
Infectious disease,Booster shots,Stability analysis,Hopf bifurcation,Parameter estimation.
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