Evaluating the use of GPT-3.5-turbo to provide clinical recommendations in the Emergency Department

The release of GPT-3.5-turbo (ChatGPT) and other large language models (LLMs) has the potential to transform healthcare. However, existing research evaluating LLM performance on real-world clinical notes is limited. Here, we conduct a highly-powered study to determine whether GPT-3.5-turbo can provide clinical recommendations for three tasks (admission status, radiological investigation(s) request status, and antibiotic prescription status) using clinical notes from the Emergency Department. We randomly select 10,000 Emergency Department visits to evaluate the accuracy of zero-shot, GPT-3.5-turbo-generated clinical recommendations across four different prompting strategies. We find that GPT-3.5-turbo performs poorly compared to a resident physician, with accuracy scores 24% lower on average. GPT-3.5-turbo tended to be overly cautious in its recommendations, with high sensitivity at the cost of specificity. Our findings demonstrate that, while early evaluations of the clinical use of LLMs are promising, LLM performance must be significantly improved before their deployment as decision support systems for clinical recommendations and other complex tasks. ### Competing Interest Statement CYKW has no conflicts of interest to disclose. BYM is a paid consultant for SandboxAQ. AJB is a co-founder and consultant to Personalis and NuMedii; consultant to Mango Tree Corporation, and in the recent past, Samsung, 10x Genomics, Helix, Pathway Genomics, and Verinata (Illumina); has served on paid advisory panels or boards for Geisinger Health, Regenstrief Institute, Gerson Lehman Group, AlphaSights, Covance, Novartis, Genentech, and Merck, and Roche; is a shareholder in Personalis and NuMedii; is a minor shareholder in Apple, Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, Snap, 10x Genomics, Illumina, Regeneron, Sanofi, Pfizer, Royalty Pharma, Moderna, Sutro, Doximity, BioNtech, Invitae, Pacific Biosciences, Editas Medicine, Nuna Health, Assay Depot, and Vet24seven, and several other non-health related companies and mutual funds; and has received honoraria and travel reimbursement for invited talks from Johnson and Johnson, Roche, Genentech, Pfizer, Merck, Lilly, Takeda, Varian, Mars, Siemens, Optum, Abbott, Celgene, AstraZeneca, AbbVie, Westat, and many academic institutions, medical or disease specific foundations and associations, and health systems. AJB receives royalty payments through Stanford University, for several patents and other disclosures licensed to NuMedii and Personalis. AJB's research has been funded by NIH, Peraton (as the prime on an NIH contract), Genentech, Johnson and Johnson, FDA, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Leon Lowenstein Foundation, Intervalien Foundation, Priscilla Chan and Mark Zuckerberg, the Barbara and Gerson Bakar Foundation, and in the recent past, the March of Dimes, Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, California Governor's Office of Planning and Research, California Institute for Regenerative Medicine, L'Oreal, and Progenity. None of these entities had any bearing on the design of this study or the writing of the manuscript. ### Funding Statement This study did not receive any funding. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The UCSF Institutional Review Board determined that this use of the deidentified data within the UCSF Information Commons is not human participants research and therefore was exempt from further approval and informed consent. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes The code accompanying this manuscript is available at .