A New Approach to the CO2 Airborne Fraction: Enhancing Statistical Precision and Tackling Zero Emissions
arXiv (Cornell University)(2023)
摘要
The global fraction of anthropogenically emitted CO2 that stays in the
atmosphere, the CO2 airborne fraction, has been fluctuating around a constant
value over the recent period of 1959-2021. The consensus estimate of the
airborne fraction is around $44\%$, indicating that approximately $44\%$ of
emitted CO2 stays in the atmosphere and the remaining $56\%$ is absorbed by the
oceanic and terrestrial biospheres. In this study, we show that the
conventional estimator of the airborne fraction suffers from a number of
statistical deficiencies, such as non-existence of moments and a non-Gaussian
limiting distribution. We formulate a new estimator of the airborne fraction
that does not suffer from these deficiencies. We show that the new estimator is
superconsistent, has a Gaussian limiting distribution, and is able to reduce
estimation uncertainty substantially. Our empirical analysis leads to an
estimate of the airborne fraction over 1959-2021 of $47.6\%$ ($\pm 1.1\%$; $1
\sigma$). Hence, our empirical results imply a higher, and better constrained,
airborne fraction than the current consensus. Our theoretical results indicate
that a conventional analysis of the airborne fraction may be problematic,
especially in future low emissions scenarios such as those implied by "net
zero" international agreements. Our newly proposed estimator avoids these
issues and thus provides a promising approach to future studies of the airborne
fraction, especially in low emission scenarios.
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关键词
co2 airborne fraction,tackling zero emissions,precision
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