Exploring uncertainties of ecological management in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve, Northwest China

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in ecological management. Failing to acknowledge and inappropriately address uncertainty may lead to negative consequences. In this paper, taking Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve (QMNR) as an example, we explored the uncertainties that China’s ecological management of protected areas are facing and then proposed methods to mitigate them. Firstly, we classified the uncertainties into four categories, namely environmental uncertainty, human realm uncertainty, non-independence of events and interactions, and decision-making uncertainty, respectively. Then, the impact of the uncertainties on ecological management is analyzed. We found that uncertainty exists throughout the whole management process, human domain-related factors and decision uncertainties have the strongest influences. At last, we provided a conceptual model to mitigate the uncertainties. The core idea of the model is adaptive management that combines enhanced scientific research, improved decision-making process, and development of law and institution. With the model, the uncertainties facing ecological management would be much more effectively identified, and then would be easily responded.