Decarbonisation technologies can halve the nonlinear increase in electricity demand in densely populated areas due to climate change

This study projects past and future net electricity consumption (EC) in the Tokyo metropolitan area under various global warming scenarios (ranging from -1.0 degrees C to +3.0 degrees C in 0.5 degrees C increments) using fine-scale temperature sensitivity data (on the order of a few kilometers). The results reveal that EC for space-cooling escalates nonlinearly from present to future climates due to climate change. Conversely, EC for space-heating diminishes. As a result, the net EC grows nonlinearly. The change in EC is minor in regions with lower population densities, such as the northern Kanto region. However, in areas with high population densities, such as the Tokyo 23 wards of central Tokyo, EC surges with warming. Within these wards, EC varies based on building use, with business and commercial districts being particularly sensitive to global warming. Meanwhile, residential areas display fewer changes in EC. Implementing measures in business and commercial districts, which are more vulnerable to global warming, could be instrumental in decarbonisation and urban heat island mitigation. Our projections also indicate that the adoption of increased building insulation, enhanced air conditioning efficiency, and reductions in internal heat gains could halve the anticipated increase in EC.