Identification of women at high risk of postpartum psychiatric episodes: A population-based study quantifying relative and absolute risks following exposure to selected risk factors and genetic liability.

BACKGROUND:We quantified relative and absolute risks of postpartum psychiatric episodes (PPE) following risk factors: Young age, past personal or family history of psychiatric disorders, and genetic liability. METHODS:We conducted a register-based study using the iPSYCH2012 case-cohort sample. Exposures were personal history of psychiatric episodes prior to childbirth, being a young mother (giving birth before the age of 21.5 years), having a family history of psychiatric disorders, and a high (highest quartile) polygenic score (PGS) for major depression. PPE was defined within 12 months postpartum by prescription of psychotropic medication or in- and outpatient contact to a psychiatric facility. We included primiparous women born 1981-1999, giving birth before January 1st, 2016. We conducted Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) of PPE, absolute risks were calculated using cumulative incidence functions. RESULTS:We included 8174 primiparous women, and the estimated baseline PPE risk was 6.9% (95% CI 6.0%-7.8%, number of PPE cases: 2169). For young mothers with a personal and family history of psychiatric disorders, the absolute risk of PPE was 21.6% (95% CI 15.9%-27.8%). Adding information on high genetic liability to depression, the risk increased to 29.2% (95% CI 21.3%-38.4%) for PPE. CONCLUSIONS:Information on prior personal and family psychiatric episodes as well as age may assist in estimating a personalized risk of PPE. Furthermore, additional information on genetic liability could add even further to this risk assessment.