Beyond Bayesian Model Averaging over Paths in Probabilistic Programs with Stochastic Support
arxiv(2023)
摘要
The posterior in probabilistic programs with stochastic support decomposes as
a weighted sum of the local posterior distributions associated with each
possible program path. We show that making predictions with this full posterior
implicitly performs a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) over paths. This is
potentially problematic, as BMA weights can be unstable due to model
misspecification or inference approximations, leading to sub-optimal
predictions in turn. To remedy this issue, we propose alternative mechanisms
for path weighting: one based on stacking and one based on ideas from
PAC-Bayes. We show how both can be implemented as a cheap post-processing step
on top of existing inference engines. In our experiments, we find them to be
more robust and lead to better predictions compared to the default BMA weights.
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