Agent-based model for assessment of multiple circular economy strategies: Quantifying product-service diffusion, circularity, and sustainability

Despite the increasing need for tools to support a circular economy, methods for assessing circularity and environmental consequences in a way that considers dynamic changes in heterogeneous consumer behavior are lacking. Here we propose an agent-based model for assessing seven explicitly-defined product-level circular economy strategies. The model endogenizes bounded rational consumer behavior and interactions related to product acquisition, obsolescence, repair, hibernation, and discharge. Simulation experiments with numerical examples were used to quantify the diffusion of product service systems (e.g., leasing of refurbished products and sharing/rental services), product circularity, and lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions over 30 years. As a result, synergies arising from promotion measures (e.g., pricing, advertisements, and service levels), bottlenecks (e.g., lack of collected products), and rebound effects (e.g., due to new production and transport) were identified. By employing “what-if” analyses, this model provides a means to identify effective interventions in the transition to a net-zero circular economy.