Park conservation or degradation? iCLUE modelling of land use change projections in the upper Manafwa watershed on Mount Elgon, Uganda

•Historical land use changes were a basis for iCLUE modelling of future LULC.•Natural cover conversion by agriculture and built-up will threaten primary forest.•Dominant cover by 2050 are agriculture (44%) and tropical forest low-stocked (23%).•Encroachment is mostly determined by park boundary management and law enforcement.•Participants agreed with the model outcomes and used them to develop a workplan.