[The mortality cost of carbon dioxide emissions from a steel plant in Southern Italy: a climate change health impact assessment].

OBJECTIVES:to quantify the temperature-related global health impacts of the Taranto steel plant CO2e emissions. DESIGN:using the risk functions available in the literature, a prospective global health impact assessment of the marginal CO2e emissions declared by the steel plant for 2020 was conducted. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:world population in the period 2020-2100. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES:deaths in the period 2020-2100 attributable to the marginal CO2e emitted by the Taranto steel plant in 2020. RESULTS:considering the central estimates in the baseline emission scenario (4.1°C warming by 2100), the Taranto steel plant 2020 CO2e emissions will cause 1,876 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100. The largest part will be attributable to steelmaking processes, accounting for 1,093 deaths. The same emissions will cause 5.56 × 10-4 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100 per tonne of steel produced in 2020, i.e. one death for every 1,799 tonnes of steel. If the 2020 CO2e emissions of the steel plant had been reduced by 25%, 50% or 75%, the deaths avoided in the world in the period 2020-2100 would have been 469, 938 and 1,407 respectively. CONCLUSIONS:estimates predict a probably significant mortality impact worldwide by the end of the century associated with the greenhouse gases emissions of the Taranto steel plant. Just reducing emissions by 50% in a single year could maybe avoid over 900 deaths worldwide by the end of the century. This confirms the importance of implementing incisive policies to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in all sectors.