The effect of climate change on the potential for landfill gas generation at the Vinča landfill site

Climate change projections indicate that Republic of Serbia and the Western Balkans will face a high probability of continuing temperature increases, climatic extremes are projected to become more common, including a significant increase in the number of extreme heat events. Heavier precipitation events are expected in the winter months, whilst summers are projected to become even drier. This paper aims to analyse effect of precipitation changes on landfill gas generation on the Vinča landfill, the biggest landfill in Serbia. Quantities of generated landfill gas and methane have been estimated by using LandGem model. Site specific methane generation rate has been calculated according to GMI methodology for Central Eastern Europe. Sensitivity analyses is performed to determine influence of a precipitation regimes on the methane generation rate on the site. Any increase in precipitation (in range 10-30%) may increase landfill gas production for 4.3%. The paper shows the difference in gas emissions, with the same composition of waste, and different precipitation regimes. Changes in precipitation regimes due to climate change can affect the dynamics of landfill gas emissions. This information is significant for the possible re-circulation of leachate from the landfill which could result in an increased production of landfill gas.