Sustainability of Colonist Land Uses in the Amazon: A Demo-Livelihoods Perspective

Amazon, the largest global tropical forest, is central to counterbalance the effects of climate change. However, the extant literature has not fully explained the effects of demographic changes on land use and livelihoods sustainability that reconciles production and conservation. Using a case study of 28 years in the Brazilian Amazon, this article provided novel empirical evidences on the co-evolution of household demographic dynamics (composition and life cycles), land use and livelihoods as depicted by the demo-livelihoods theoretical framework. Methods of analysis involve the combination of exploratory (descriptive, cluster and correlation) and a multivariate hazard model. The results validated the demo-livelihoods theory and showed that livelihoods adaptation over time involves diversification combining perennials and cattle ranching, land consolidation and off-farm strategies (remittances, wage labor, cash transfers). These strategies are conditioned by demographic dynamics. Households are less likely to diversify livelihoods with annual crops due to unsustainable environmental conditions and costs associated with land intensification and market accessibility. While diversification historically occur at the expense of primary forest, household ageing may create a momentum to limit deforestation and allows the future incorporation of plot-based natural capital as a source of diversified, sustainable land uses and livelihoods for carbon emissions and bioeconomy markets.