Model development of dose and volume predictors for esophagitis induced during chemoradiotherapy for lung cancer as a step towards radiobiological treatment planning

Background Currently, radiation therapy treatment planning system intends biological optimization that relies heavily upon plan metrics from tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modeling. Implementation and expansion of TCP and NTCP models with alternative data is an important step towards reliable radiobiological treatment planning. In this retrospective single institution study, the treatment charts of 139 lung cancer patients treated with chemo-radiotherapy were reviewed and correlated dosimetric predictors with the incidence of esophagitis and established NTCP model of esophagitis grade 1 and 2 for lung cancer patients. Methods Esophagus is an organ at risk (OAR) in lung cancer radiotherapy (RT). Esophagitis is a common toxicity induced by RT. In this study, dose volume parameters V x (V x : percentage esophageal volume receiving ≥ x Gy) and mean esophagus dose (MED) as quantitative dose-volume metrics, the esophagitis grade 1 and 2 as endpoints, were reviewed and derived from the treatment planning system and the electronic medical record system. Statistical analysis of binary logistic regression and probit were performed to have correlated the probability of grade 1 and 2 esophagitis to MED and V x . IBM SPSS software version 24 at 5% significant level (α = 0.05) was used in the statistical analysis. Results The probabilities of incidence of grade 1 and 2 esophagitis proportionally increased with increasing the values of V x and MED. V 20 , V 30 , V 40 , V 50 and MED are statistically significant good dosimetric predictors of esophagitis grade 1. 50% incidence probability (TD 50 ) of MED for grade 1 and 2 esophagitis were determined. Lyman Kutcher Burman model parameters, such as, n, m and TD 50 , were fitted and compared with other published findings. Furthermore, the sigmoid shaped dose responding curve between probability of esophagitis grade 1 and MED were generated respecting to races, gender, age and smoking status. Conclusions V 20 , V 30 , V 40 and V 50 were added onto Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the clinic, or QUANTEC group’s dose constrains of V 35 , V 50 , V 70 and MED. Our findings may be useful as both validation of 3-Dimensional planning era models and also additional clinical guidelines in treatment planning and plan evaluation using radiobiology optimization.