Soil organic carbon sequestration potential for croplands in Finland over 2021-2040 under the interactive impacts of climate change and agricultural management

CONTEXT: Cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) stock can be increased by agricultural management, but is subject to various factors. The extent and rates of SOC sequestration potential, as well as the controlling factors, under different climate and management practices across a region or country are important for policy-makers and land managers, however have been rarely known.OBJECTIVE: We aim to investigate the extent and rates of SOC sequestration potential over 2021-2040 under different scenarios of climate change and Sustainable Soil Management (SSM) practices, and quantify the impacts of climate change and SSM practices on the SOC sequestration potential, for croplands across Finland at a spatial resolution of 1 km.METHODS: RothC model is run iteratively to equilibrium to calculate the size of the SOC pools and the annual plant carbon inputs. Then, it is applied to investigate the SOC sequestration potential over 2021-2040 under different scenarios of climate change and SSM practices. Finally, facorial simulation experiments are conducted to quantify the impacts of climate change and SSM practices, alone and in combination, on SOC sequestration potential.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Under the combined impacts of climate change and SSM practices, the SOC sequestration potential during 2021-2040 relative to 2020 will be on average - 0.03, 0.007, 0.05, and 0.13 t C ha- 1 yr- 1, respectively, with carbon input being business as usual, 5%, 10%, and 20% increase. This is equivalent to an annual change rate of -0.04%, 0.009%, 0.07%, and 0.17%, respectively. Therefore, a 20% increase in C input to soil will not be enough to obtain a 4%o increase per year over the 20-year period in Finland. Carbon input will promote SOC sequestration potential; however, climate change will reduce it on average by 0.28 t C ha- 1 yr- 1. Across the cropland in Finland, on average, the relative contributions of C input, temperature, and precipitation to SOC sequestration potential in 2021-2040 will be 56%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, however there is a spatially explicit pattern. The SOC sequestration potential will be relatively high and dominated by C input in west and southwest Finland. By contrast, it will be relatively low and dominated by climate in north and east Finland, and the central part of southern Finland.SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings provide the information as to where, how much, and which SSM practices could be applied for enhancing SOC sequestration at a high spatial resolution, which is essential for stakeholders to increase cropland SOC sequestration efficiently.