Biodiversity change in light of succession theory

Biodiversity is rapidly changing in the Anthropocene, but not all directional changes observed in biodiversity time series are anthropogenic. We discuss key research findings in global change ecology from the past decade, considering the possibility that natural succession contributes as a driving force of directional change. Succession theory suggests the possibility that: 1) accelerated rates of species temporal turnover could also reflect ecosystem recovery rather than global biodiversity redistribution; 2) natural changes in local diversity over time may not be zero, with successional diversity change being variable but often showing a positive temporal trend; 3) biotic homogenization may not only be driven by non-native species, but also by natural processes alone; and 4) successional dynamics may strongly modify the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We propose that a holistic integration of succession theory into global change ecology could provide a baseline for natural biodiversity change and allow us to better isolate the impact of anthropogenic drivers.