Winter Climate of Northeastern Dominican Republic and Cash Crop Production

The winter climate of the northeastern Dominican Republic features steady rainfall, which sustains cash crop production. Using a representative season, December 2016-February 2017, the mesoscale climate is characterized by high-resolution reanalysis, satellite measurements and local observations, and statistical analyses of time series from an index area of 18.8-19.6 degrees N, 70.4-69.6 degrees W in the Cibao Valley, where cacao and coffee are grown. Winter rainfall depends on strong trade winds that push shallow stratiform convections over 100 km inland, where nocturnal drainage flows induce orographic uplift. Interannual climate variability is studied in the context of cacao and coffee production in the years 1976-2019. Lag correlations demonstrate that higher yields follow a wet autumn, a windy winter with cool sea temperatures, and a dry spring. Changes in high-value agricultural production in the northeastern Dominican Republic may be anticipated by the climatic determinants uncovered here.