Modelling and analysing supply chain disruption: a case of online grocery retailer

Supply Chains (SCs) are becoming more vulnerable to disruption risks because of globalisation, competitiveness, and uncertainties. This study is motivated by an online grocery retailer in the UK that experienced multiple disruption risks, such as demand and supply shocks, facility closures, and disruption propagation simultaneously in 2020. The main purpose of this study is to model and perform quantitative analyses of a range of SC disruption risks affecting the UK online retailer. We have attempted to study how UK retailers responded to the first and second waves of the pandemic and the effect on multiple products. Six scenarios are developed based on SC disruption risks and their impacts on SC performance are analysed. The quantitative analysis of two strategies used by grocery retailers during the pandemic, namely vulnerable priority delivery slots and rationing of products, illustrates that rationing of products had a greater SC impact than the use of priority delivery slots. The effects of two resilience strategies, backup supplier and ramping up distribution centre capacity, are also quantified and discussed. Novel managerial insights and theoretical implications are discussed to make online grocery SC more resilient and robust during future disruptions.